Woody MarksQuestionable

Houston Texans · RB · #4

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under78.5

Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1183 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

at PIT, 2026-01-12: 112, missed, 20 carries + targets
at NE, 2026-01-18: 36, hit, 17 carries + targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 40, hit, 10 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 35, hit, 14 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-27: 21, hit, 6 carries + targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 22, hit, 7 carries + targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 85, missed, 19 carries + targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 81, missed, 18 carries + targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 81, missed, 20 carries + targets
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 74, hit, 22 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 78.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 18–89.7 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 78.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunCarries + targets
Last 3: 20 carries + targets · 2026: 14.5 (8 games) · up 38%
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 7% over 8 games this season
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 78.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 16 of 22; with another HOU quarterback: 3 of 4
Defense vs running backs
CLE allow 133.1 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 12th most of 32
9 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC

Splits

Under 78.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 78.5

Average: 58.7; −19.8 vs line
Median: 57; −21.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	5/10
−1373 books	—	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1123 books	−1182 books	6/10
+2303 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 78.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 78.5	Under 78.5
betPARX7 min ago	−112Best	−117Best
BetRivers7 min ago	−113	−118
Bally Bet7 min ago	−112Best	—

Prices as of 5:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

78.5

−117 → −118 since first seen