Woody Marks

Houston Texans · RB · #4

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under78.5

Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1224 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs IND, 2026-01-04: 48, hit, 13 carries + targets
at PIT, 2026-01-12: 112, missed, 20 carries + targets
at NE, 2026-01-18: 36, hit, 17 carries + targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 40, hit, 10 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 35, hit, 14 carries + targets
at IND, 2026-09-27: 21, hit, 6 carries + targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 22, hit, 7 carries + targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 85, missed, 19 carries + targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 81, missed, 18 carries + targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 81, missed, 20 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 78.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.5–88.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 78.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunCarries + targets
Last 3: 19 carries + targets · 2026: 13.4 (7 games) · up 42%
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 7% over 7 games this season
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 78.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 15 of 21; with another HOU quarterback: 3 of 4
Defense vs running backs
LAC allow 130.7 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 13th most of 32
7 games
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 vs NYG

Splits

Under 78.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Under 78.5 hit in 1 of 1 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAC

Rush+Rec Yards: 75 in 21 carries + targets, Dec 27, 2025 (away)

Under 78.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against LAC on record

L10 · Under 78.5

Average: 56.1; −22.4 vs line
Median: 44; −34.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2953 books	—	6/10
−1773 books	—	6/10
−1151 book	−1131 book	6/10
−1184 books	−1223 books	6/10
−1143 books	—	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
+1323 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 78.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 78.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 78.5	Under 78.5
Bovada7 min ago	−115Best	−115Best
betPARX3 min ago	−118	−122
BetRivers1 min ago	−118	−122
Bally Bet2 min ago	−118	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

78.5

80.5 → 78.5 since first seen