Tyler Warren

Indianapolis Colts · TE · #84

MIA @ IND · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1002 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs SF, 2025-12-22: 3, hit, 9 targets
vs JAX, 2025-12-28: 5, hit, 5 targets
at HOU, 2026-01-04: 5, hit, 8 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 5 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 9, missed, 10 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 5, hit, 5 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 9 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 4, hit, 10 targets
vs DAL, 2026-11-08: 4, hit, 7 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Under 5.5 with Jones at quarterback: 13 of 19; with another IND quarterback: 5 of 5
Defense vs tight ends
MIA allow 6.5 receptions a game to tight ends: 6th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 7.6 (7 games)
Target share: 24% last 3 games · 22% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DAL

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 0 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIA

Receptions: 7 in 9 targets, Sep 7, 2025 (home)

Under 5.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 5.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at −100
Books’ fair: 45%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −121

Research, not a pick. At +112 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −121, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6501 book	—	2/10
−2701 book	—	4/10
−1482 books	−1002 books	7/10
+1341 book	—	8/10
+2301 book	—	9/10
+3901 book	—	9/10
+6401 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel11 min ago	−148	+112Best
Pinnacle11 min ago	−132Best	−100
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−112 → −100 since first seen