Tyler Shough

New Orleans Saints · QB · #6

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under277.5

Over 277.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1183 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 277.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at TEN, 2025-12-28: 339, cleared, 31 attempts + carries
at ATL, 2026-01-04: 293, cleared, 38 attempts + carries
at DET, 2026-09-13: 418, cleared, 60 attempts + carries
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 275, missed, 43 attempts + carries
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 291, cleared, 43 attempts + carries
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 291, cleared, 50 attempts + carries
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 96, missed, 25 attempts + carries
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 176, missed, 35 attempts + carries
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 285, cleared, 41 attempts + carries
vs CLE, 2026-11-08: 316, cleared, 45 attempts + carries

ClearedMissedThe 277.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 136.9–382.5 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 277.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 40.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 42.8 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CLE
Game lines
NO −2 · total 48.5 (5 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 45.3 on average (8 games)
CAR injuries
Will Lee III (CB, Out, 4.7 tackles); Mike Jackson (CB, Injured Reserve, 4 tackles); Jaelan Phillips (LB, Out, 3.2 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 2 more on the report

Splits

Over 277.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Over 277.5 cleared in 2 of 2 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Pass+Rush Yards: 304 in 40 attempts + carries, Dec 14, 2025 (home)

Over 277.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 277.5

Average: 278; +0.5 vs line
Median: 291; +13.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −101

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2453 books	—	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/10
−1273 books	—	8/10
−1183 books	−1222 books	7/10
+1403 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 277.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 277.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 277.5	Under 277.5
Bally Bet14 min ago	−118Best	—
betPARX14 min ago	−118Best	−122Best
BetRivers14 min ago	−118Best	−122Best

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

277.5

275.5 → 277.5 since first seen