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Tyler Higbee

Los Angeles Rams · TE · #89

LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1181 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

  1. at CHI, 2026-01-18: 1, hit, 2 targets
  2. at SEA, 2026-01-25: 1, hit, 1 targets
  3. vs SF, 2026-09-10: 2, hit, 2 targets
  4. at DEN, 2026-09-27: 8, missed, 11 targets
  5. at PHI, 2026-10-04: 5, missed, 6 targets
  6. vs BUF, 2026-10-12: 5, missed, 6 targets
  7. vs ARI, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 4 targets
  8. at LV, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 3 targets
  9. vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 2 targets
  10. at WSH, 2026-11-08: 1, hit, 5 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 3.3 targets · 2026: 4.9 (8 games) · down 33%

    Target share: 10% last 3 games · 12% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Matthew Stafford led LAR in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Stafford at quarterback: 19 of 31; with another LAR quarterback: 0 of 1

  • Defense vs tight ends

    ARI allow 5.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 19th most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at WSH

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Receptions: 4 in 4 targets, Oct 18 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against ARI on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3
−0.5 vs line
Median
2
−1.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
46%
at +118
Books’ fair
43%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At +118 the price beats our fair −106, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14501 book—4/10
−4001 book—6/10
−1581 book+1181 book6/10
+1401 book—7/10
+2701 book—9/10
+4901 book—9/10
+8801 book—9/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel3 min ago−158Best+118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: No move since first seen

Tyler Higbee's full game log and splits