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Tucker Kraft

Green Bay Packers · TE · #85

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1746 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs CAR, 2025-11-02: 2, hit, 3 targets
  2. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 6 targets
  3. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 3 targets
  4. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 4, hit, 8 targets
  5. at TB, 2026-10-04: 6, missed, 7 targets
  6. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 5, missed, 5 targets
  7. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 8 targets
  8. at DET, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 6 targets
  9. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 6, missed, 6 targets
  10. at NE, 2026-11-08: 1, hit, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs tight ends

    MIN allow 3.9 receptions a game to tight ends: the fewest of 32

    8 games

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Love at quarterback: 31 of 43; with another GB quarterback: 3 of 3

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 5.8 (9 games)

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 15% over 9 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at NE

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIN

Receptions: 3 in 6 targets, Sep 13 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
3.8
−0.7 vs line
Median
4
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
64%
at −174
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −148

Research, not a pick. At −148 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −148, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−33353 books—1/10
−5304 books—3/10
−1954 bookspick'em only4/10
+1146 books−1744 books6/10
+2254 books—8/10
+4404 books—10/10
+8504 books—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
betPARX3 min ago+114−148Best
Bovada3 min ago+130Best−170
FanDuel3 min ago+130Best−174
Pinnacle4 min ago+130Best−174
Bally Bet3 min ago+114—
BetRivers3 min ago+112—
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−160 → −174 since first seen

Tucker Kraft's full game log and splits