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Tucker Kraft

Green Bay Packers · TE · #85

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder37.5
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 37.5

50%5 of 10L10

Over 37.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

  1. vs CAR, 2025-11-02: 20, missed, 3 targets
  2. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 65, cleared, 6 targets
  3. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 15, missed, 3 targets
  4. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 26, missed, 8 targets
  5. at TB, 2026-10-04: 42, cleared, 7 targets
  6. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 64, cleared, 5 targets
  7. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 37, missed, 8 targets
  8. at DET, 2026-10-25: 48, cleared, 6 targets
  9. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 53, cleared, 6 targets
  10. at NE, 2026-11-08: 1, missed, 3 targets
ClearedMissedThe 37.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 12–68.4 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 37.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Over 37.5 with Love at quarterback: 21 of 43; with another GB quarterback: 0 of 3

  • Defense vs tight ends

    MIN allow 46.4 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 25th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 5.8 (9 games)

    Target share: 13% last 3 games · 15% over 9 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at NE

Splits

Over 37.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIN

Receiving Yards: 65 in 6 targets, Sep 13 (away)

Over 37.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 37.5

Average
37.1
−0.4 vs line
Median
39.5
+2 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−5604 books—8/10
−2901 book—7/10
−2204 books—6/10
−1143 books−1143 books5/10
−1153 books−1142 books5/10
−1084 books—5/10
+1654 books—3/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 37.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 37.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 37.5Under 37.5
FanDuel5 min ago−114Best−114Best
Pinnacle5 min ago−114Best−114Best
Bovada5 min ago−115−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 7:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

37.5

40.5 → 37.5 since first seen

Tucker Kraft's full game log and splits