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Trey McBride

Arizona Cardinals · TE · #85

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder7.5
Under 7.5 Receptions, typical price −1486 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 7.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Receptions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 on the road).

  1. at CIN, 2025-12-28: 10, missed, 13 targets
  2. at LAR, 2026-01-04: 7, hit, 8 targets
  3. at LAC, 2026-09-13: 9, missed, 13 targets
  4. vs SEA, 2026-09-20: 8, missed, 10 targets
  5. at SF, 2026-09-27: 9, missed, 11 targets
  6. at NYG, 2026-10-04: 7, hit, 12 targets
  7. vs DET, 2026-10-11: 9, missed, 10 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-18: 7, hit, 9 targets
  9. vs DEN, 2026-10-25: 10, missed, 13 targets
  10. at DAL, 2026-11-01: 7, hit, 8 targets
Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–10 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jacoby Brissett led ARI in passing in 7 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Gardner Minshew II 1 (led the last game). Under 7.5 with Brissett at quarterback: 6 of 19; with another ARI quarterback: 22 of 31

  • Defense vs tight ends

    SEA allow 5.0 receptions a game to tight ends: 19th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 10 targets · 2026: 10.8 (8 games)

    Target share: 23% last 3 games · 26% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at DAL

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs SEA

Receptions: 8 in 10 targets, Sep 20 (home)

Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against SEA on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average
8.3
+0.8 vs line
Median
8.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
60%
at −148
Books’ fair
56%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−9104 books—0/10
−3604 books—0/10
−1675 books+1151 book0/10
+1126 books−1484 books4/10
+2004 books—5/10
+3504 books—8/10
+6504 books—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 7.5Under 7.5
Bovada4 min ago+110−145Best
betPARX5 min ago+114Best−148
FanDuel4 min ago+112−148
Pinnacle5 min ago+112−148
Bally Bet5 min ago+114Best—
BetRivers5 min ago+112—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 10:56 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

No move since first seen

Trey McBride's full game log and splits