Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars · QB · #16

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price −1486 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 on the road).

at IND, 2025-12-28: 0, missed, 37 attempts
vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 30 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 3, cleared, 30 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 4, cleared, 23 attempts
at DEN, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 29 attempts
vs NE, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 29 attempts
at CIN, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 23 attempts
vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 2, cleared, 39 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 4, cleared, 41 attempts
vs IND, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 14 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–4 passing tds.

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Defense vs quarterbacks
BAL allow 1.38 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 17th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31.3 attempts · 2026: 28.3 (7 games)
Game lines
JAX −9.5 · total 40 (6 sportsbooks)
JAX's games this season closed at 44.8 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Passing TDs: 1 in 43 attempts, Dec 17, 2023 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BAL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 3; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −148
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −146, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−11154 books	—	8/10
−1486 books	+1065 books	7/10
+2654 books	—	6/10
+9504 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDueljust now	−122Best	−106
Bovada3 min ago	−125	−105
Pinnacle3 min ago	−129	+106
Bally Bet3 min ago	−148	—
betPARX1 min ago	−148	+114Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−150	+112
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: −141 → −148 since first seen