Travis KelceQuestionable

Kansas City Chiefs · TE · #87

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under45.5

Over 45.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 45.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at TEN, 2025-12-21: 6, missed, 4 targets
vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 36, missed, 6 targets
at LV, 2026-01-04: 12, missed, 6 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 71, cleared, 5 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 101, cleared, 11 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 59, cleared, 2 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 15, missed, 4 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 53, cleared, 5 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 44, missed, 8 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 67, cleared, 7 targets

ClearedMissedThe 45.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 19.1–86.7 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 45.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes led KC in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 45.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 31 of 51; with another KC quarterback: 0 of 3
Defense vs tight ends
NYJ allow 59.1 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 10th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6 (7 games)
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 18% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN

Splits

Over 45.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 45.5

Average: 46.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 48.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4701 book	—	7/10
−3454 books	—	7/10
−1774 books	—	6/10
−1143 books	−1143 books	5/10
−1123 books	−1182 books	5/10
+1004 books	—	5/10
+1634 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 45.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 45.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 45.5	Under 45.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada3 min ago	−115	−115
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

45.5

No move since first seen