Tony Pollard
JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 15.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 8.2–22 rushing attempts.
What's different on Sunday
Over 15.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunCarries
Last 3: 21.7 carries · 2026: 16.6 (8 games) · up 31%
Quarterback
Cam Ward led TEN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 15.5 with Ward at quarterback: 11 of 24; with another TEN quarterback: 11 of 17
Defense vs running backs
JAX allow 18.6 carries a game to running backs: 29th most of 32
8 games
Rest
13 days off since Nov 1 at CIN
Splits
Over 15.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs JAX
Rushing Attempts: 14 in 14 carries, Jan 4 (away)
Over 15.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against JAX on record
L10 · Over 15.5
- Average
- 16.5
- +1 vs line
- Median
- 16.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −20003 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −6253 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −2453 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1153 books | −1251 book | 6/10 | |
| +1653 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +3003 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +5003 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 15.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 15.5 | Under 15.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet7 min ago | −115Best | — |
| betPARX7 min ago | −115Best | −125Best |
| BetRivers7 min ago | −115Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
15.5−121 → −115 since first seen