Tetairoa McMillan

Carolina Panthers · WR · #4

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1476 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TB, 2026-01-03: 4, hit, 6 targets
vs LAR, 2026-01-10: 5, hit, 7 targets
vs CHI, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 8 targets
at ATL, 2026-09-20: 5, hit, 10 targets
at CLE, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 5 targets
vs DET, 2026-10-04: 14, missed, 16 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 9 targets
vs TB, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 6 targets
at GB, 2026-10-29: 6, missed, 11 targets
vs DEN, 2026-11-08: 4, hit, 6 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Bryce Young led CAR in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 5.5 with Young at quarterback: 18 of 25; with another CAR quarterback: 0 of 1
Defense vs wide receivers
NO allow 10.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 17th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.7 targets · 2026: 8.9 (8 games)
Target share: 21% last 3 games · 23% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DEN

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NO in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 2 against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NO

Receptions: 2 in 4 targets, Dec 14, 2025 (away)

Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 2 games against NO on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 5.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −147
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20004 books	—	1/10
−5904 books	—	1/10
−2454 books	—	4/10
−1246 books	−1474 books	7/10
+1454 books	—	9/10
+2504 books	—	9/10
+4104 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
betPARX9 min ago	−124	−118Best
FanDuel8 min ago	+106	−140
Pinnacle9 min ago	+111	−147
Bovada9 min ago	+115Best	−150
Bally Bet9 min ago	−124	—
BetRivers9 min ago	−124	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

4.5 → 5.5 since first seen