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Tetairoa McMillan

Carolina Panthers · WR · #4

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder5.5
Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1396 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 5.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

  1. vs SEA, 2025-12-28: 1, hit, 4 targets
  2. at TB, 2026-01-03: 4, hit, 6 targets
  3. vs LAR, 2026-01-10: 5, hit, 7 targets
  4. vs CHI, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 8 targets
  5. at ATL, 2026-09-20: 5, hit, 10 targets
  6. at CLE, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 5 targets
  7. vs DET, 2026-10-04: 14, missed, 16 targets
  8. at PHI, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 9 targets
  9. vs TB, 2026-10-25: 4, hit, 6 targets
  10. at GB, 2026-10-29: 6, missed, 11 targets
Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Bryce Young led CAR in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Under 5.5 with Young at quarterback: 17 of 24; with another CAR quarterback: 0 of 1

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    DEN allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 9.3 (7 games)

    Target share: 23% last 3 games · 24% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Oct 29 at GB

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DEN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average
5.2
−0.3 vs line
Median
5
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
58%
at −139
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −128

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −128, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−20004 books—2/10
−5004 books—2/10
−2054 books—4/10
+1056 books−1394 books7/10
+2054 books—9/10
+4004 books—9/10
+7504 books—9/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 5.5Under 5.5
Bovada4 min ago+105−135Best
FanDuel4 min ago+102−136
betPARX5 min ago+107Best−139
Pinnacle5 min ago+106−141
Bally Bet5 min ago+107Best—
BetRivers5 min ago+105—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−137 → −139 since first seen

Tetairoa McMillan's full game log and splits