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Stefon Diggs

Washington Commanders · WR · #3

LAR @ WSH · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1625 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

  1. vs LAC, 2026-01-11: 2, hit, 5 targets
  2. vs HOU, 2026-01-18: 4, hit, 6 targets
  3. at DEN, 2026-01-25: 5, missed, 6 targets
  4. vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 3, hit, 3 targets
  5. at PHI, 2026-09-13: 4, hit, 9 targets
  6. at DAL, 2026-09-20: 5, missed, 6 targets
  7. vs SEA, 2026-09-27: 4, hit, 7 targets
  8. vs IND, 2026-10-04: 5, missed, 9 targets
  9. at SF, 2026-10-19: 6, missed, 7 targets
  10. vs PHI, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 6 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs wide receivers

    LAR allow 8.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: the fewest of 32

    8 games

  • Quarterback

    Jayden Daniels led WSH in passing in 5 of 7 games this season

    Also led: Athan Kaliakmanis 1; Marcus Mariota 1. Under 4.5 with Daniels at quarterback: 2 of 4; with another WSH quarterback: 1 of 2

  • New team

    6 games with WSH; before that, NE

    Under 4.5 with WSH: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10

  • Targets

    Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 7.3 (6 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 21% over 6 games this season

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
4.1
−0.4 vs line
Median
4
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −162
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
57%
estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −162 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −134, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−33353 books—0/10
−5004 books—1/10
−1804 books+1251 book3/10
+1285 books−1623 books6/10
+2554 books—9/10
+5104 books—10/10
+10504 books—10/10
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel1 min ago+122−162Best
Pinnacle2 min ago+122−162Best
betPARX1 min ago+128Best−167
Bally Bet1 min ago+128Best—
BetRivers1 min ago+128Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

No move since first seen

Stefon Diggs's full game log and splits