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Sam LaPorta

Detroit Lions · TE · #87

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder4.5
Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1666 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 4.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

  1. vs MIN, 2025-11-02: 6, missed, 8 targets
  2. at WSH, 2025-11-09: 5, missed, 5 targets
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 5, missed, 8 targets
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 6, missed, 7 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 4 targets
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 8, missed, 13 targets
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 5, missed, 5 targets
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 2 targets
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 3, hit, 5 targets
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 4, hit, 5 targets
Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games) · down 34%

    Target share: 14% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 4.5 with Goff at quarterback: 24 of 46; with another DET quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs tight ends

    NE allow 4.9 receptions a game to tight ends: 22nd most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average
4.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
5
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −166
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
59%
estimate · fair −142

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −142, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14303 books—1/10
−4204 books—1/10
−1674 books+1151 book3/10
+1246 books−1663 books4/10
+2354 books—7/10
+4104 books—9/10
+7504 books—9/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
Bovada15 min ago+115−150Best
FanDuel15 min ago+124−166
Pinnacle15 min ago+124−166
Bally Bet15 min ago+125Best—
betPARX15 min ago+125Best—
BetRivers15 min ago+125Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 7:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

No move since first seen

Sam LaPorta's full game log and splits