Sam LaPorta

Detroit Lions · TE · #87

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under41.5

Over 41.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunTargets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 6.3 (7 games) · down 37%
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 18% over 7 games this season
Defense vs tight ends
MIA allow 69.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 5th most of 32
7 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50 (6 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 41.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

vs TB, 2025-10-20: 15, missed, 3 targets
vs MIN, 2025-11-02: 97, cleared, 8 targets
at WSH, 2025-11-09: 53, cleared, 5 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 48, cleared, 8 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 52, cleared, 7 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 44, cleared, 4 targets
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 84, cleared, 13 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 88, cleared, 5 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 18, missed, 2 targets
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 33, missed, 5 targets

ClearedMissedThe 41.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 15–80.5 receiving yards.

Splits

Over 41.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 41.5

Average: 53.2; +11.7 vs line
Median: 50; +8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −129, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3601 book	—	8/10
−2501 book	—	8/10
−1301 book	—	7/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	7/10
+1361 book	—	5/10
+2201 book	—	3/10
+3501 book	—	3/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 41.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 41.5	Under 41.5
FanDuel15 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

41.5

No move since first seen