Rome Odunze
TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PMGame log against Under 3.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.
What's different on Sunday
Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 3.5 with Williams at quarterback: 22 of 36; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
TB allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 5.5 (8 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 16% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA
Splits
Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 3.5
- Average
- 3.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 62%
- at −166
- Books’ fair
- 58%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −129
Research, not a pick. At −160 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7704 books | — | 0/10 | |
| −2154 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +1246 books | −1664 books | 7/10 | |
| +2854 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +6504 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +10001 book | — | 10/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada5 min ago | +120 | −160Best |
| FanDuel5 min ago | +124 | −166 |
| Pinnacle6 min ago | +124 | −166 |
| betPARX5 min ago | +128Best | −167 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | +128Best | — |
| BetRivers6 min ago | +128Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:31 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Under: −157 → −166 since first seen


