Rhamondre Stevenson

New England Patriots · RB · #38

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM

Over Under81.5

Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1183 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at DEN, 2026-01-25: 71, hit, 27 carries + targets
vs SEA, 2026-02-08: 63, hit, 12 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-09-09: 95, missed, 24 carries + targets
vs PIT, 2026-09-20: 46, hit, 8 carries + targets
at JAX, 2026-09-27: 38, hit, 10 carries + targets
at BUF, 2026-10-04: 74, hit, 18 carries + targets
vs LV, 2026-10-11: 85, missed, 16 carries + targets
vs NYJ, 2026-10-18: 36, hit, 14 carries + targets
at CHI, 2026-10-22: 115, missed, 11 carries + targets
at MIA, 2026-11-01: 90, missed, 22 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 81.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 28.9–104 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 81.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Drake Maye led NE in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 81.5 with Maye at quarterback: 23 of 35; with another NE quarterback: 4 of 9
Defense vs running backs
GB allow 127.1 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 16th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 15.7 carries + targets · 2026: 15.4 (8 games)
Target share: 16% last 2 games · 13% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at MIA

Splits

Under 81.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 81.5

Average: 71.3; −10.2 vs line
Median: 72.5; −9 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −125

Research, not a pick. At −117 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −125, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1623 books	—	6/10
−1123 books	−1182 books	6/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	6/10
+2103 books	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 81.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 81.5	Under 81.5
betPARX4 min ago	−112Best	−117Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−113	−118
Bally Bet4 min ago	−112Best	—

Prices as of 10:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

81.5

82.5 → 81.5 since first seen