Patrick Mahomes
NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 244.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 244.5 Passing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 148.5–343.9 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 244.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
NYJ allow 208.4 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 27th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 34.7 attempts · 2026: 33.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN
Game lines
KC −10 · total 47.5 (8 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.1 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 244.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 244.5
- Average
- 240.5
- −4 vs line
- Median
- 235.5
- −9 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7001 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −4554 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −2004 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1154 books | −1153 books | 5/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 5/10 | |
| +1024 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +1904 books | — | 2/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 244.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 244.5 | Under 244.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −114Best | — |
| betPARX5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| Bovada5 min ago | −115 | −115 |
Prices as of 4:29 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
244.5245.5 → 244.5 since first seen