Patrick Mahomes
NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Under 263.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 263.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 162.7–358.4 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 263.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 37.7 attempts + carries · 2026: 36.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN
Game lines
KC −10 · total 47.5 (8 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.1 on average (7 games)
NYJ injuries
T'Vondre Sweat (DT, Injured Reserve, 2.5 tackles); Joseph Ossai (DE, Questionable, 3.9 tackles); Trevin Wallace (LB, Questionable, 3.7 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10) · 1 more on the report
Splits
Under 263.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 263.5
- Average
- 258.6
- −4.9 vs line
- Median
- 236
- −27.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −106
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −106, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1753 books | — | 6/10 | |
| — | — | 6/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 6/10 | |
| −1153 books | −1142 books | 6/10 | |
| +1173 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +2153 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +4003 books | — | 8/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 263.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 263.5 | Under 263.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX2 min ago | −115Best | −113Best |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −117 | −114 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −115Best | — |
Prices as of 7:57 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
263.5258.5 → 263.5 since first seen