Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR · #11

JAX @ TEN · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1606 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 5, missed, 9 targets
vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 7, missed, 12 targets
vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 5, missed, 6 targets
at DEN, 2026-09-20: 7, missed, 12 targets
vs NE, 2026-09-27: 3, hit, 5 targets
at CIN, 2026-10-04: 1, hit, 3 targets
vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 9 targets
vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 11 targets
vs IND, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 2 targets
at BAL, 2026-11-05: 2, hit, 7 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs wide receivers
TEN allow 15.3 receptions a game to wide receivers: the most of 32
8 games
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 4.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 23 of 34; with another JAX quarterback: 6 of 8
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.9 (8 games)
Target share: 24% last 3 games · 24% over 8 games this season
Rest
9 days off since Nov 5 at BAL

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs TEN

Receptions: 5 in 9 targets, Jan 4 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 4 of 5 games against TEN on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −160
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −169, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	2/10
−7704 books	—	3/10
−2754 books	—	4/10
−1256 books	−1604 books	5/10
+1554 books	—	7/10
+2854 books	—	8/10
+4754 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
betPARX12 min ago	−125	−115Best
Bovada12 min ago	+110	−145
FanDuel12 min ago	+120Best	−160
Pinnacle13 min ago	+120Best	−160
Bally Bet12 min ago	−125	—
BetRivers12 min ago	−125	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −135 → −160 since first seen