Parker Washington

Jacksonville Jaguars · WR · #11

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price +1086 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 vs IND: a short week
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence led JAX in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 4.5 with Lawrence at quarterback: 11 of 33; with another JAX quarterback: 2 of 8
Defense vs wide receivers
BAL allow 12.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 7th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 6.9 (7 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 24% over 7 games this season

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 on the road).

at IND, 2025-12-28: 8, cleared, 10 targets
vs TEN, 2026-01-04: 5, cleared, 9 targets
vs BUF, 2026-01-11: 7, cleared, 12 targets
vs CLE, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at DEN, 2026-09-20: 7, cleared, 12 targets
vs NE, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 5 targets
at CIN, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 3 targets
vs PHI, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 9 targets
vs HOU, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 11 targets
vs IND, 2026-11-01: 1, missed, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BAL

Receptions: 4 in 6 targets, Dec 17, 2023 (home)

Over 4.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BAL on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 4.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 5; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 48%; at +108
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Targets: 7.9; 10 games · 6.7 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 46%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	8/10
−6254 books	—	8/10
−2104 books	—	7/10
+1086 books	−1324 books	6/10
+2304 books	—	4/10
+4604 books	—	3/10
+9504 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	+112Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	+112Best	−148
BetRivers4 min ago	+112Best	—
Bovada5 min ago	+105	−135
FanDuel3 min ago	−102	−130Best
Pinnacle5 min ago	−102	−130Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over −105 → +108 since first seen