Omarion Hampton
LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 40.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 40.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 16.1–85 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Monday
Over 40.5 · facts from past games, not a pickMonDefense vs running backs
BAL allow 98.8 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 30th most of 32
9 games
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Questionable (finger). He led LAC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 40.5 with Herbert at quarterback: 13 of 18; with another LAC quarterback: no games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 12 carries + targets · 2026: 14.4 (8 games)
Target share: 10% last 2 games · 7% over 6 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 8 vs HOU
Splits
Over 40.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 40.5
- Average
- 49.1
- +8.6 vs line
- Median
- 48
- +7.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −113
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −113 the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 | |
| −1131 book | −1151 book | 6/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 40.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 40.5 | Under 40.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −113Best | −115Best |
Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
40.539.5 → 40.5 since first seen