Ollie Gordon II

Miami Dolphins · RB · #0

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1324 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

at NYJ, 2025-12-07: 5, hit, 5 carries
at PIT, 2025-12-15: 2, hit, 2 carries
vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 1, hit, 1 carries
at NE, 2026-01-04: 9, hit, 9 carries
at SF, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 3 carries
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 17, missed, 17 carries
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 9, hit, 9 carries
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 18, missed, 18 carries
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 25, missed, 25 carries
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 19, missed, 19 carries

Under hitMissedThe 16.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–24.5 rushing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunCarries
Last 3: 20.7 carries · 2026: 15.2 (6 games) · up 36%
Quarterback
Malik Willis led MIA in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 16.5 with Willis at quarterback: 2 of 6; with another MIA quarterback: 16 of 16
Defense vs running backs
DET allow 18.6 carries a game to running backs: 29th most of 32
7 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

Splits

Under 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 16.5

Average: 10.8; −5.7 vs line
Median: 9; −7.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −110, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4353 books	—	6/10
−1903 books	—	6/10
−1304 books	−1322 books	6/10
+1083 books	—	7/10
+2003 books	—	9/10
+3603 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
betPARX5 min ago	−130	+100Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	−101Best	−132
Bally Bet6 min ago	−130	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−132	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:51 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

−127 → −132 since first seen