Ollie Gordon II

Miami Dolphins · RB · #0

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under81.5

Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1133 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at NYJ, 2025-12-07: 17, hit, 5 carries + targets
at PIT, 2025-12-15: 0, hit, 2 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2025-12-21: -1, hit, 1 carries + targets
at NE, 2026-01-04: 11, hit, 10 carries + targets
at SF, 2026-09-20: 7, hit, 3 carries + targets
vs KC, 2026-09-27: 55, hit, 20 carries + targets
at MIN, 2026-10-04: 100, missed, 11 carries + targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 88, missed, 18 carries + targets
at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 103, missed, 28 carries + targets
vs NE, 2026-11-01: 69, hit, 20 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 81.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 5.1–113.6 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 81.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs running backs
DET allow 99.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 31st most of 32
7 games
SunCarries + targets
Last 3: 22 carries + targets · 2026: 16.7 (6 games) · up 32%
Target share: 8% last 2 games · 9% over 4 games this season
Quarterback
Malik Willis led MIA in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 81.5 with Willis at quarterback: 3 of 6; with another MIA quarterback: 16 of 16
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

Splits

Under 81.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 81.5

Average: 44.9; −36.6 vs line
Median: 36; −45.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1673 books	—	7/10
−1173 books	−1132 books	7/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	7/10
−1101 book	−1201 book	7/10
+1953 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 81.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 81.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 81.5	Under 81.5
betPARX3 min ago	−117Best	−112Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−118	−113
Bally Bet5 min ago	−117Best	—

Prices as of 9:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

81.5

87.5 → 81.5 since first seen