Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs · TE · #83

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Receptions, typical price +1006 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 1, missed, 1 targets
at LV, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 1 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 2, cleared, 3 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 2 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 1, missed, 1 targets

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTargets

What's different on Sunday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 1.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 28 of 46; with another KC quarterback: 1 of 4
Defense vs tight ends
ATL allow 5.6 receptions a game to tight ends: 12th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 2.1 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 7% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +100
Books’ fair: 44%; margin removed
Targets: 2.3; 10 games · 2.8 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 44%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5004 books	—	9/10
+1006 books	−1664 books	6/10
+3004 books	—	4/10
+8504 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada11 min ago	+130Best	−170
FanDuel10 min ago	+124	−166
Pinnacle11 min ago	+106	−140
Bally Bet11 min ago	+100	—
betPARX11 min ago	+100	−129Best
BetRivers11 min ago	−103	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: +106 → +100 since first seen