Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs · TE · #83

KC @ ATL · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under10.5

Over 10.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1206 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 10.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs DEN, 2025-12-25: 2, missed, 1 targets
at LV, 2026-01-04: 30, cleared, 5 targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 5, missed, 1 targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 0, missed, 1 targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 39, cleared, 3 targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 17, cleared, 3 targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 53, cleared, 3 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 44, cleared, 3 targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 15, cleared, 2 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-11-08: 11, cleared, 1 targets

ClearedMissedThe 10.5 lineTargets

What's different on Sunday

Over 10.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Questionable. He led KC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 10.5 with Mahomes at quarterback: 31 of 46; with another KC quarterback: 1 of 4
Defense vs tight ends
ATL allow 50.4 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 18th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 2.1 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 7% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs NYJ

Splits

Over 10.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL in his last 10; Over 10.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ATL

Receiving Yards: 13 in 2 targets, Sep 22, 2024 (away)

Over 10.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against ATL on record

L10 · Over 10.5

Average: 21.6; +11.1 vs line
Median: 16; +5.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Targets: 2.3; 10 games · 2.8 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 10.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2601 book	—	8/10
−1344 books	—	7/10
−1206 books	−1145 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1361 book	—	6/10
+2004 books	—	4/10
+3101 book	—	4/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 10.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 10.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 10.5	Under 10.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−114Best	−114
Pinnacle5 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bovada5 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet5 min ago	−120	—
betPARX5 min ago	−120	−108Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−121	−109
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

10.5

11.5 → 10.5 since first seen