Nico Collins

Houston Texans · WR · #12

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1546 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

vs ARI, 2025-12-14: 3, hit, 4 targets
vs LV, 2025-12-21: 4, hit, 9 targets
at LAC, 2025-12-27: 3, hit, 4 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-12: 3, hit, 7 targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 7, missed, 10 targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 7, missed, 8 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 5, missed, 7 targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 3, hit, 5 targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 5 targets
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 4, hit, 4 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 4.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 19 of 39; with another HOU quarterback: 2 of 6
Defense vs wide receivers
CLE allow 10.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 17th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 6.5 (6 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 19% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 2 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Receptions: 6 in 7 targets, Jan 13, 2024 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 3.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −154
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	0/10
−6254 books	—	1/10
−2254 books	—	5/10
+1046 books	−1544 books	7/10
+2104 books	—	8/10
+4104 books	—	8/10
+8504 books	—	10/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
betPARX3 min ago	+104	−136Best
Pinnacle3 min ago	+109	−145
FanDuel3 min ago	+116	−154
Bovada3 min ago	+120Best	−160
Bally Bet3 min ago	+104	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+102	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −145 → −154 since first seen