Nico Collins

Houston Texans · WR · #12

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under56.5

Under 56.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1134 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 56.5 Receiving Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs ARI, 2025-12-14: 85, missed, 4 targets
vs LV, 2025-12-21: 59, missed, 9 targets
at LAC, 2025-12-27: 57, missed, 4 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-12: 21, hit, 7 targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 75, missed, 10 targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 118, missed, 8 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 56, hit, 7 targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 74, missed, 5 targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 6, hit, 5 targets
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 55, hit, 4 targets

Under hitMissedThe 56.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 6.6–100.1 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 56.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 56.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 11 of 39; with another HOU quarterback: 3 of 6
Defense vs wide receivers
CLE allow 144.4 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 20th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.7 targets · 2026: 6.5 (6 games)
Target share: 14% last 3 games · 19% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC

Splits

Under 56.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Under 56.5 hit in 1 of 2 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Receiving Yards: 96 in 7 targets, Jan 13, 2024 (home)

Under 56.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record

L10 · Under 56.5

Average: 60.6; +4.1 vs line
Median: 58; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −107

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2784 books	—	2/10
−1624 books	—	2/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	3/10
−1174 books	−1133 books	4/10
−1051 book	−1271 book	5/10
−1034 books	pick'em only	6/10
+1484 books	—	6/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 56.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 56.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 56.5	Under 56.5
betPARX5 min ago	−117	−112Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−117	−113
FanDuel4 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet5 min ago	−117	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:11 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

56.5

55.5 → 56.5 since first seen