Mike Washington Jr.
LV @ SF · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
Game log against Over 33.5
50%4 of 8L8
Over 33.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 4 of his last 8 games (2 of 4 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 5.2–72.3 rushing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunCarries
Last 3: 13.3 carries · 2026: 8.1 (8 games) · up 64%
Defense vs running backs
SF allow 78.6 rushing yards a game to running backs: 24th most of 32
7 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at NYJ
Game lines
LV +9.5 · total 52 (6 sportsbooks)
LV's games this season closed at 46.5 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 33.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L8 · Over 33.5
- Average
- 34.8
- +1.3 vs line
- Median
- 34
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −112
Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −112, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1654 books | — | 4/8 | |
| — | — | 4/8 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 4/8 | |
| −1183 books | −1122 books | 4/8 | |
| +1304 books | — | 4/8 | |
| +1231 book | −1641 book | 4/8 | |
| +2354 books | — | 2/8 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 33.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 33.5 | Under 33.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet3 min ago | −118Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −118Best | −110Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −120 | −112 |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:18 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
33.543.5 → 33.5 since first seen