Mike Gesicki

Cincinnati Bengals · TE · #88

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price +1054 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at MIA, 2025-12-21: 3, cleared, 4 targets
vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 7 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 3 targets
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 2 targets
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 6 targets
at ATL, 2026-11-08: 2, missed, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 17 of 30; with another CIN quarterback: 2 of 5
Defense vs tight ends
PIT allow 5.0 receptions a game to tight ends: 20th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 3.7 (7 games)
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 10% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Receptions: 3 in 3 targets, Sep 27 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 3 of 3 games against PIT on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 49%; at +105
Books’ fair: 45%; margin removed
Our chance: 48%; estimate · fair +109

Research, not a pick. At +116 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +109, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25004 books	—	10/10
−3054 books	—	8/10
+1054 books	−1542 books	5/10
+2554 books	—	2/10
+6004 books	—	1/10
+12001 book	—	0/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel12 min ago	+116Best	−154
Bally Bet12 min ago	+105	—
betPARX12 min ago	+105	−136Best
BetRivers12 min ago	+104	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: +116 → +105 since first seen