Mike Gesicki

Cincinnati Bengals · TE · #88

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under27.5

Over 27.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1245 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 27.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs BAL, 2025-12-14: 11, missed, 2 targets
at MIA, 2025-12-21: 35, cleared, 4 targets
vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 47, cleared, 2 targets
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 13, missed, 2 targets
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 78, cleared, 7 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 37, cleared, 3 targets
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 40, cleared, 5 targets
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 2 targets
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 1 targets
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 76, cleared, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 27.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–79.2 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 27.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 27.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 17 of 29; with another CIN quarterback: 1 of 5
Defense vs tight ends
ATL allow 54.9 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 15th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 4 (6 games)
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 10% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN

Splits

Over 27.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 27.5

Average: 34.7; +7.2 vs line
Median: 36; +8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2154 books	—	6/10
−1441 book	—	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1245 books	−1184 books	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
−1094 books	—	6/10
+1604 books	—	4/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 27.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 27.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 27.5	Under 27.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet5 min ago	−124	—
betPARX5 min ago	−124	−118
BetRivers5 min ago	−124	−118
Pinnacle5 min ago	−139	+105Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:01 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

27.5

−122 → −124 since first seen