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Michael WilsonQuestionable

Arizona Cardinals · WR · #14

ARI @ SEA · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder4.5
Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1041 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jacoby Brissett led ARI in passing in 7 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Gardner Minshew II 1 (led the last game). Over 4.5 with Brissett at quarterback: 9 of 19; with another ARI quarterback: 6 of 27

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    SEA allow 9.5 receptions a game to wide receivers: 28th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 10 targets · 2026: 10.1 (8 games)

    Target share: 23% last 3 games · 25% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at DAL

Game log against Over 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (6 of 7 on the road).

  1. at CIN, 2025-12-28: 5, cleared, 10 targets
  2. at LAR, 2026-01-04: 5, cleared, 8 targets
  3. at LAC, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 7 targets
  4. vs SEA, 2026-09-20: 2, missed, 7 targets
  5. at SF, 2026-09-27: 11, cleared, 17 targets
  6. at NYG, 2026-10-04: 7, cleared, 13 targets
  7. vs DET, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 7 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-18: 4, missed, 7 targets
  9. vs DEN, 2026-10-25: 4, missed, 8 targets
  10. at DAL, 2026-11-01: 8, cleared, 15 targets
ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs SEA

Receptions: 2 in 7 targets, Sep 20 (home)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 6 games against SEA on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average
5.5
+1 vs line
Median
5
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
51%
at −104
Books’ fair
48%
margin removed
Our chance
49%
estimate · fair +105

Research, not a pick. At −104 the price is worse than our fair +105, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−6001 book—9/10
−2351 book—9/10
−1041 book−1281 book6/10
+1881 book—3/10
+3501 book—3/10
+6301 book—2/10
+9201 book—1/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
FanDuel8 min ago−104Best−128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: No move since first seen

Michael Wilson's full game log and splits