Michael Mayer

Las Vegas Raiders · TE · #87

SEA @ LV · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1256 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

90%9 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

vs KC, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
vs MIA, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 7 targets
at LAC, 2026-09-20: 3, cleared, 4 targets
at NO, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 3 targets
vs KC, 2026-10-04: 8, cleared, 10 targets
at NE, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 1 targets
vs BUF, 2026-10-18: 7, cleared, 9 targets
vs LAR, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at NYJ, 2026-11-01: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at SF, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 3 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kirk Cousins led LV in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Over 2.5 with Cousins at quarterback: 8 of 9; with another LV quarterback: 12 of 28
Defense vs tight ends
SEA allow 5.6 receptions a game to tight ends: 12th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 4 targets · 2026: 5.1 (9 games)
Target share: 12% last 3 games · 14% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at SF

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SEA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 4.2; +1.7 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −177

Research, not a pick. At −122 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −177, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	10/10
−4004 books	—	9/10
−1256 books	−1064 books	9/10
+1954 books	—	4/10
+4404 books	—	4/10
+10004 books	—	3/10
+12801 book	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel10 min ago	−122Best	−106
Pinnacle10 min ago	−122Best	−106
Bally Bet10 min ago	−125	—
betPARX10 min ago	−125	−104Best
Bovada10 min ago	−125	−105
BetRivers10 min ago	−127	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−122 → −125 since first seen