Matthew Golden

Green Bay Packers · WR · #0

MIN @ GB · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1056 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at CHI, 2026-01-10: 4, missed, 5 targets
at MIN, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 12 targets
at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 4, missed, 6 targets
vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 5, missed, 12 targets
at TB, 2026-10-04: 3, missed, 7 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 7 targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 6, cleared, 13 targets
at DET, 2026-10-25: 6, cleared, 12 targets
vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 7, cleared, 13 targets
at NE, 2026-11-08: 10, cleared, 10 targets

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Jordan Love led GB in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Over 5.5 with Love at quarterback: 6 of 22; with another GB quarterback: 0 of 2
Defense vs wide receivers
MIN allow 10.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 25th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 11.7 targets · 2026: 10.2 (9 games)
Target share: 30% last 3 games · 27% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at NE

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIN

Receptions: 6 in 12 targets, Sep 13 (away)

Over 5.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 5.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −105
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair +100

Research, not a pick. At +110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +100, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20004 books	—	10/10
−5304 books	—	9/10
−2204 books	—	7/10
−1056 books	−1404 books	6/10
+1804 books	—	2/10
+3254 books	—	1/10
+6004 books	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bovada5 min ago	+110Best	−145
FanDuel5 min ago	+106	−140
Pinnacle6 min ago	+106	−140
Bally Bet5 min ago	−105	—
betPARX5 min ago	−105	−124Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−105	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over: +106 → −105 since first seen