Marvin Mims Jr.

Denver Broncos · WR · #19

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1101 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Bo Nix led DEN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 16.5 with Nix at quarterback: 16 of 37; with another DEN quarterback: 3 of 9
Defense vs wide receivers
CAR allow 144.4 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 2.8 (5 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 9% over 5 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs KC

40%4 of 10L10

Over 16.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

vs JAX, 2025-12-21: 26, cleared, 3 targets
at KC, 2025-12-25: 10, missed, 4 targets
vs LAC, 2026-01-04: 10, missed, 3 targets
vs BUF, 2026-01-17: 93, cleared, 8 targets
vs NE, 2026-01-25: 62, cleared, 6 targets
at SF, 2026-10-04: 10, missed, 3 targets
at LAC, 2026-10-11: 6, missed, 2 targets
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 13, missed, 4 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-25: 53, cleared, 2 targets
vs KC, 2026-11-01: 10, missed, 3 targets

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Over 16.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receiving Yards: 8 in 2 targets, Oct 27, 2024 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 16.5

Average: 29.3; +12.8 vs line
Median: 11.5; −5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −110
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Targets: 3.8; 10 games · 4.1 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 16.5 49%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2504 books	—	9/10
−1281 book	—	4/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	4/10
−1101 book	−1201 book	4/10
−1173 books	−1122 books	4/10
+1004 books	—	4/10
+1821 book	—	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
Bovada5 min ago	−110Best	−120Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:07 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

17.5 → 16.5 since first seen