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Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens · TE · #89

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder2.5
Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1276 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

4 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Lamar Jackson at quarterback; Jackson is out tonight. Without him (BAL): Over 2.5 in 6 of 8.

  • TonightQuarterback

    Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Doubtful, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 2.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 21 of 40; with another BAL quarterback: 6 of 8

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week

  • Defense vs tight ends

    JAX allow 4.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 5.1 (8 games)

    Target share: 12% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season

Game log against Over 2.5

80%8 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 3 at home).

  1. at GB, 2025-12-27: 4, cleared, 4 targets
  2. at PIT, 2026-01-04: 2, missed, 3 targets
  3. at IND, 2026-09-13: 4, cleared, 6 targets
  4. vs NO, 2026-09-20: 6, cleared, 7 targets
  5. at DAL, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 5 targets
  6. vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  7. at ATL, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 6 targets
  8. at CLE, 2026-10-18: 1, missed, 3 targets
  9. vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 3, cleared, 4 targets
  10. at BUF, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 4 targets
ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 2.5

Average
3.5
+1 vs line
Median
3.5
+1 vs line
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10
Price implies
56%
at −127
Books’ fair
53%
margin removed
Targets
4.8
10 games · 4.1 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 2.5 53%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−50003 books—10/10
−4204 books—9/10
−1276 books−1024 books8/10
+2004 books—5/10
+4604 books—2/10
+10504 books—1/10
+12801 book—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
Bovada1 min ago−125Best−105
Bally Bet1 min ago−127—
betPARX3 min ago−127−103
BetRivers3 min ago−127—
FanDuel1 min ago−130−102
Pinnacle1 min ago−145+109Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 8:33 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over −130 → −127 since first seen

Mark Andrews's full game log and splits