Malik Nabers

New York Giants · WR · #1

NYG @ PHI · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1205 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at DAL, 2025-09-14: 9, cleared, 13 targets
vs KC, 2025-09-21: 2, missed, 7 targets
vs LAC, 2025-09-28: 2, missed, 3 targets
vs DAL, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 9 targets
at LAR, 2026-09-21: 1, missed, 4 targets
vs TEN, 2026-09-27: 5, missed, 6 targets
vs ARI, 2026-10-04: 6, cleared, 7 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-11: 11, cleared, 20 targets
vs NO, 2026-10-18: 12, cleared, 15 targets
at HOU, 2026-10-25: 7, cleared, 9 targets

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunTargets
Last 3: 14.7 targets · 2026: 10 (7 games) · up 47%
Target share: 34% last 3 games · 29% over 7 games this season
Quarterback
Jameis Winston led NYG in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: J.J. McCarthy 1 (led the last game); Jaxson Dart 1. Over 5.5 with Winston at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another NYG quarterback: 14 of 21
Defense vs wide receivers
PHI allow 12.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 6th most of 32
8 games
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 at HOU

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Over 5.5 cleared in 0 of 2 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PHI

Nabers didn't play the Oct 26, 2025 meeting; receptions the last time Nabers faced them: 5 (Jan 5, 2025)

Over 5.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHI on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 6.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 6; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −120
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −122, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−50003 books	—	7/10
−7154 books	—	7/10
−2654 books	—	7/10
−1205 books	−1063 books	6/10
+1634 books	—	4/10
+3104 books	—	3/10
+5754 books	—	3/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−120Best	—
betPARX8 min ago	−120Best	−109
BetRivers8 min ago	−120Best	—
FanDuel8 min ago	−122	−106
Bovada8 min ago	−125	−105Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:47 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−122 → −120 since first seen