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Luther Burden III

Chicago Bears · WR · #10

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM
OverUnder5.5
Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1596 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 5.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

  1. vs GB, 2026-01-10: 3, hit, 7 targets
  2. vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 3, hit, 7 targets
  3. at CAR, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 5 targets
  4. vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 7 targets
  5. vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 7, missed, 11 targets
  6. vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 4, hit, 6 targets
  7. at GB, 2026-10-11: 4, hit, 6 targets
  8. at ATL, 2026-10-18: 8, missed, 8 targets
  9. vs NE, 2026-10-22: 4, hit, 4 targets
  10. at SEA, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 9 targets
Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 5.5 with Williams at quarterback: 18 of 22; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    TB allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7 (8 games)

    Target share: 20% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average
4.8
−0.7 vs line
Median
4
−1.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
61%
at −159
Books’ fair
57%
margin removed
Our chance
61%
estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −154 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −154, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14304 books—0/10
−4204 books—3/10
−1774 books—6/10
+1206 books−1594 books7/10
+2254 books—7/10
+4254 books—9/10
+8004 books—10/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 5.5Under 5.5
FanDuel17 min ago+116−154Best
Pinnacle17 min ago+116−154Best
betPARX17 min ago+120Best−159
Bovada17 min ago+120Best−160
Bally Bet17 min ago+120Best—
BetRivers17 min ago+120Best—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 9:28 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under: −154 → −159 since first seen

Luther Burden III's full game log and splits