Luther Burden III

Chicago Bears · WR · #10

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1545 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Under 5.5 with Williams at quarterback: 18 of 22; with another CHI quarterback: 2 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
TB allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7 (8 games)
Target share: 20% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA

70%7 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 at home).

vs GB, 2026-01-10: 3, hit, 7 targets
vs LAR, 2026-01-18: 3, hit, 7 targets
at CAR, 2026-09-13: 5, hit, 5 targets
vs MIN, 2026-09-20: 3, hit, 7 targets
vs PHI, 2026-09-28: 7, missed, 11 targets
vs NYJ, 2026-10-04: 4, hit, 6 targets
at GB, 2026-10-11: 4, hit, 6 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-18: 8, missed, 8 targets
vs NE, 2026-10-22: 4, hit, 4 targets
at SEA, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 9 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 4; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −154
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −152

Research, not a pick. At −143 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −152, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	0/10
−4554 books	—	3/10
−1865 books	+1101 book	6/10
+1125 books	−1543 books	7/10
+2104 books	—	7/10
+3904 books	—	9/10
+7504 books	—	10/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
betPARX7 min ago	+112	−143Best
FanDuel6 min ago	+116Best	−154
Pinnacle7 min ago	+116Best	−154
Bally Bet7 min ago	+112	—
BetRivers7 min ago	+112	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Under No move since first seen