Luther Burden III
TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM
What's different tonight
Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Caleb Williams led CHI in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyson Bagent 2; Case Keenum 1. Over 5.5 with Williams at quarterback: 4 of 22; with another CHI quarterback: 1 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
TB allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7 (8 games)
Target share: 20% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 2 at SEA
Game log against Over 5.5
30%3 of 10L10
Over 5.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (1 of 6 at home).
Splits
Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against TB on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 5.5
- Average
- 4.8
- −0.7 vs line
- Median
- 4
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 47%
- at +114
- Books’ fair
- 44%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 7
- 10 games · 4.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 5.5 44%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −16674 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −4354 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1825 books | +1101 book | 4/10 | |
| +1144 books | −1512 books | 3/10 | |
| +2104 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +3904 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +7504 books | — | 0/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 5.5 | Under 5.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | +116Best | −154 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | +114 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | +114 | −148Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +114 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:16 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
5.5Over +116 → +114 since first seen