Kyler MurrayQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #1

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under209.5

Under 209.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1151 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 209.5 Passing Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs CAR, 2025-09-14: 220, missed, 25 attempts
at SF, 2025-09-21: 159, hit, 35 attempts
vs SEA, 2025-09-25: 200, hit, 41 attempts
vs TEN, 2025-10-05: 220, missed, 31 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 18, hit, 5 attempts
at TB, 2026-09-27: 168, hit, 29 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 247, missed, 37 attempts
at NO, 2026-10-11: 229, missed, 30 attempts
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 150, hit, 24 attempts
at DET, 2026-11-01: 210, missed, 29 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 209.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 88.1–301.1 passing yards.

What's different on Monday

Under 209.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 269.0 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 3rd most of 32
7 games
New team
6 games with MIN; before that, ARI
Under 209.5 with MIN: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 4 of 10
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.7 attempts · 2026: 25.7 (6 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Under 209.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 209.5 hit in 1 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Passing Yards: 162 in 31 attempts, Sep 8, 2024 (away)

Under 209.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 209.5

Average: 182.1; −27.4 vs line
Median: 205; −4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −107

Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1151 book	−1151 book	5/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 209.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 209.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 209.5	Under 209.5
Bovada6 min ago	−115Best	−115Best

Prices as of 7:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

209.5

213.5 → 209.5 since first seen