Kyler MurrayQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #1

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Passing TDs, typical price +1201 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

20%2 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Passing TDs cleared in 2 of his last 10 games (1 of 6 at home).

vs CAR, 2025-09-14: 1, missed, 25 attempts
at SF, 2025-09-21: 1, missed, 35 attempts
vs SEA, 2025-09-25: 2, cleared, 41 attempts
vs TEN, 2025-10-05: 0, missed, 31 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 0, missed, 5 attempts
at TB, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 29 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 0, missed, 37 attempts
at NO, 2026-10-11: 1, missed, 30 attempts
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 24 attempts
at DET, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 29 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linePass attempts

What's different on Monday

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
6 games with MIN; before that, ARI
Over 1.5 with MIN: 1 of 6; his last 10 games before: 4 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 2.14 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 5th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.7 attempts · 2026: 25.7 (6 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Passing TDs: 1 in 31 attempts, Sep 8, 2024 (away)

Over 1.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 0.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 20%; 2 of 10
Price implies: 45%; at +120
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Pass attempts: 28.6; 10 games · 32.2 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 42%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1201 book	−1601 book	2/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bovada3 min ago	+120Best	−160Best

Prices as of 11:00 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over: +122 → +120 since first seen