Kyler MurrayQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #1

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under231.5

Under 231.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1151 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 231.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

vs CAR, 2025-09-14: 252, missed, 32 attempts + carries
at SF, 2025-09-21: 196, hit, 41 attempts + carries
vs SEA, 2025-09-25: 241, missed, 46 attempts + carries
vs TEN, 2025-10-05: 245, missed, 35 attempts + carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 27, hit, 7 attempts + carries
at TB, 2026-09-27: 185, hit, 31 attempts + carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 263, missed, 43 attempts + carries
at NO, 2026-10-11: 280, missed, 40 attempts + carries
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 189, hit, 29 attempts + carries
at DET, 2026-11-01: 245, missed, 33 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 231.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 102.2–338.9 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Monday

Under 231.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
6 games with MIN; before that, ARI
Under 231.5 with MIN: 3 of 6; his last 10 games before: 2 of 10
Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 34 attempts + carries · 2026: 30.5 (6 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Game lines
MIN +3.5 · total 45.5 (8 sportsbooks)
MIN's games this season closed at 43.2 on average (7 games)

Splits

Under 231.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 231.5 hit in 1 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Pass+Rush Yards: 219 in 36 attempts + carries, Sep 8, 2024 (away)

Under 231.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 231.5

Average: 212.3; −19.2 vs line
Median: 243; +11.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −104

Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1151 book	−1151 book	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 231.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 231.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 231.5	Under 231.5
Bovada1 min ago	−115Best	−115Best

Prices as of 11:26 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

231.5

235.5 → 231.5 since first seen