Kyler MurrayQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #1

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under19.5

Under 19.5 Completions, typical price −1051 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 19.5 Completions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs CAR, 2025-09-14: 17, hit, 25 attempts
at SF, 2025-09-21: 22, missed, 35 attempts
vs SEA, 2025-09-25: 27, missed, 41 attempts
vs TEN, 2025-10-05: 23, missed, 31 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 5 attempts
at TB, 2026-09-27: 15, hit, 29 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 27, missed, 37 attempts
at NO, 2026-10-11: 24, missed, 30 attempts
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 14, hit, 24 attempts
at DET, 2026-11-01: 17, hit, 29 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 19.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 8.1–29.8 completions.

What's different on Monday

Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

MonDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 24.1 completions a game to quarterbacks: 2nd most of 32
7 games
New team
6 games with MIN; before that, ARI
Under 19.5 with MIN: 4 of 6; his last 10 games before: 1 of 10
Pass attempts
Last 3: 27.7 attempts · 2026: 25.7 (6 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Under 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 19.5 hit in 0 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Completions: 21 in 31 attempts, Sep 8, 2024 (away)

Under 19.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 19.5

Average: 18.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 19.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −105
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −113

Research, not a pick. At −105 the price beats our fair −113, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1251 book	−1051 book	5/10
	pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
Bovada4 min ago	−125Best	−105Best

Prices as of 12:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

−102 → −105 since first seen