Kyle Pitts Sr.

Atlanta Falcons · TE · #8

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under41.5

Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1174 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 41.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 16, hit, 3 targets
vs NO, 2026-01-04: 58, missed, 9 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-13: 0, hit, 1 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 15, hit, 3 targets
at GB, 2026-09-24: 5, hit, 2 targets
at NO, 2026-10-05: 47, missed, 3 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 42, missed, 6 targets
vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 60, missed, 7 targets
vs SF, 2026-10-25: 22, hit, 5 targets
at TB, 2026-11-01: 6, hit, 5 targets

Under hitMissedThe 41.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2.9–60.2 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs tight ends
CIN allow 88.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 2nd most of 32
7 games
SunTargets
Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 4 (8 games) · up 43%
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season
Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 41.5 with Penix at quarterback: 11 of 18; with another ATL quarterback: 17 of 32
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at TB

Splits

Under 41.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 41.5

Average: 27.1; −14.4 vs line
Median: 19; −22.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4001 book	—	6/10
−2504 books	—	6/10
−1374 books	—	6/10
−1244 books	−1173 books	6/10
−1152 books	−1152 books	7/10
+1204 books	—	8/10
+2051 book	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 41.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 41.5	Under 41.5
Bovada7 min ago	−115Best	−115Best
betPARX5 min ago	−124	−117
BetRivers7 min ago	−124	−117
Bally Bet8 min ago	−124	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:42 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

41.5

40.5 → 41.5 since first seen