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Kyle Pitts Sr.

Atlanta Falcons · TE · #8

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
OverUnder41.5
Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1152 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 41.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 41.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

  1. vs LAR, 2025-12-29: 16, hit, 3 targets
  2. vs NO, 2026-01-04: 58, missed, 9 targets
  3. at PIT, 2026-09-13: 0, hit, 1 targets
  4. vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 15, hit, 3 targets
  5. at GB, 2026-09-24: 5, hit, 2 targets
  6. at NO, 2026-10-05: 47, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 42, missed, 6 targets
  8. vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 60, missed, 7 targets
  9. vs SF, 2026-10-25: 22, hit, 5 targets
  10. at TB, 2026-11-01: 6, hit, 5 targets
Under hitMissedThe 41.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2.9–60.2 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs tight ends

    CIN allow 88.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 2nd most of 32

    7 games

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 4 (8 games) · up 43%

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 14% over 8 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Under 41.5 with Penix at quarterback: 11 of 18; with another ATL quarterback: 17 of 33

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at TB

Splits

Under 41.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 41.5

Average
27.1
−14.4 vs line
Median
19
−22.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −115
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
58%
estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −115 the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2454 books—6/10
−1343 books−1101 book6/10
−1271 book−1141 book6/10
−1182 books−1151 book6/10
−1143 books−1143 books7/10
+1254 books—8/10
+2051 book—9/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 41.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 41.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 41.5Under 41.5
Bovada6 min ago−115Best−115Best
Bally Bet6 min ago−118—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 11:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

41.5

40.5 → 41.5 since first seen

Kyle Pitts Sr.'s full game log and splits