Khalil Shakir

Buffalo Bills · WR · #10

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1376 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 6 on the road).

at JAX, 2026-01-11: 12, cleared, 12 targets
at DEN, 2026-01-17: 7, cleared, 9 targets
at HOU, 2026-09-13: 4, cleared, 6 targets
vs DET, 2026-09-17: 3, missed, 6 targets
vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 1, missed, 3 targets
vs NE, 2026-10-04: 7, cleared, 8 targets
at LAR, 2026-10-12: 3, missed, 3 targets
at LV, 2026-10-18: 4, cleared, 6 targets
vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at MIN, 2026-11-09: 4, cleared, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs wide receivers
NYJ allow 10.3 receptions a game to wide receivers: 22nd most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5.3 (8 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 18% over 8 games this season
Rest
5 days off since Nov 9 at MIN
Game lines
BUF −8 · total 51 (6 sportsbooks)
BUF's games this season closed at 51.3 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 0 of 4 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Shakir didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; receptions the last time Shakir faced them: 1 (Sep 14, 2025)

Over 3.5 hit in 0 of 4 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 5; +1.5 vs line
Median: 4; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −137
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −123

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −123, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	9/10
−3604 books	—	9/10
−1376 books	+1044 books	7/10
+1634 books	—	4/10
+3304 books	—	3/10
+6504 books	—	3/10
+11001 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bovada12 min ago	−130Best	+100
Bally Bet12 min ago	−137	—
betPARX12 min ago	−137	+105Best
BetRivers12 min ago	−137	—
FanDuel12 min ago	−138	+104
Pinnacle13 min ago	−138	+104
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −145 → −137 since first seen