Keon Coleman
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
What's different on Monday
Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 2.5 with Allen at quarterback: 17 of 35; with another BUF quarterback: 0 of 2
Defense vs wide receivers
MIN allow 10.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 25th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 3.7 targets · 2026: 3.9 (7 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 13% over 7 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Game log against Over 2.5
30%3 of 10L10
Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.
Splits
Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 2.5
- Average
- 2.4
- −0.1 vs line
- Median
- 1
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 30%
- 3 of 10
- Price implies
- 50%
- at −102
- Books’ fair
- 47%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 50%
- estimate · fair +101
Research, not a pick. At −102 the price is worse than our fair +101, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3201 book | — | 4/10 | |
| −1021 book | −1301 book | 3/10 | |
| +2301 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +5201 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +9201 book | — | 2/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −102Best | −130Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Over: −114 → −102 since first seen