Kenneth Walker III

Kansas City Chiefs · RB · #9

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under111.5

Under 111.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 111.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 at home).

vs SF, 2026-01-17: 145, missed, 22 carries + targets
vs LAR, 2026-01-25: 111, hit, 23 carries + targets
at NE, 2026-02-08: 161, missed, 31 carries + targets
vs DEN, 2026-09-14: 191, missed, 29 carries + targets
vs IND, 2026-09-20: 178, missed, 34 carries + targets
at MIA, 2026-09-27: 73, hit, 20 carries + targets
at LV, 2026-10-04: 179, missed, 23 carries + targets
vs LAC, 2026-10-18: 139, missed, 22 carries + targets
at SEA, 2026-10-25: 57, hit, 19 carries + targets
at DEN, 2026-11-01: 84, hit, 26 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 111.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 26–171 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 111.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with KC; before that, SEA
Under 111.5 with KC: 3 of 7; his last 10 games before: 6 of 10
Defense vs running backs
NYJ allow 131.6 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 12th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 22.3 carries + targets · 2026: 24.7 (7 games)
Target share: 13% last 3 games · 14% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN

Splits

Under 111.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NYJ in his last 10; Under 111.5 hit in 1 of 1 against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs NYJ

Rush+Rec Yards: 46 in 19 carries + targets, Dec 1, 2024 (away)

Under 111.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against NYJ on record

L10 · Under 111.5

Average: 131.8; +20.3 vs line
Median: 142; +30.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2003 books	—	3/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	4/10
−1141 book	−1151 book	4/10
+1483 books	—	4/10
+3803 books	—	6/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 111.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 111.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 111.5	Under 111.5
betPARX10 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers10 min ago	−117	−114
Bally Bet10 min ago	−115Best	—

Prices as of 7:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

111.5

No move since first seen